The fine print, in plain language

How this site works, and where it could be wrong

Every number here comes from public data or a source we can point to. Where we had to make a judgement call instead of measuring something directly, we say so on this page, not just in a footnote.

Where the data comes from

Reliability comes from foreign cars on foreign roads, checked against each other

We don't have a public, model-level Danish equivalent of the UK's MOT archive, so reliability comes from foreign-market cars: foreign roads, foreign weather, foreign road salt. A model's reliability relative to other models should carry over reasonably well, since it's mostly about how the car itself is built. The exact failure rate might not, since Danish winters and Danish roads differ from either source country's. Treat the ranking between cars as more trustworthy than the exact percentage for any one car.

We adjust for how far a car has typically been driven, so a model that's usually driven hard isn't unfairly compared to one that's usually driven gently. We only publish a reliability figure where there were enough tests to be confident in it. Where there weren't enough, we say so rather than show a shaky number.

As of this update, reliability draws on two countries' inspection data, not one. We added Norway's periodic vehicle control (PKK) alongside the UK's MOT archive, and checked whether the two agree, rather than assuming a single foreign country is a safe stand-in for Denmark. They partly do, and the honest answer changes by how old the car is.

What does not carry over between the two countries is the raw pass rate: Norway's measured pass rate runs 30 to 40 percentage points below the UK's for the same models at the same age, a gap driven by different statutory defect thresholds and tester incentives, not by Norwegian cars actually failing twice as often. So we never average a UK pass rate with a Norwegian one directly. Instead, each country's rate is converted to a standardised score (specifically, the logit of the pass rate, then a z-score) computed separately within each age band and each country, which strips out that country-level offset and keeps only where a model sits relative to its peers in the same country and age band. The two standardised scores are then combined with a weighted average, weighted by how much data backs each one (a UK figure built on 400,000 tests moves the combined score more than a Norwegian figure built on 3,000), never by whether the two sources happen to agree.

What does carry over, to varying degrees, is the ordering: whether the UK and Norwegian data agree on which models are more or less reliable than their peers, at the same age. We measured this directly, model by model, within each age band:

Age bandCars this age todayUK/Norway agreement (rank correlation)
4 to 6 years2020 to 20220.42, weak
7 to 9 years2017 to 20190.46, weak to moderate
10 to 12 years2014 to 20160.75, strong
13 to 16 years2010 to 20130.88, strong

Read that plainly: for the newest cars on this site, agreement between the two countries is weak, and this data does not strongly support the idea that a UK-based and a Norway-based ranking would put the same young cars at the top. For the oldest cars, the two countries agree closely, and that agreement is real evidence the ranking reflects something about how the car is built, not an artefact of one country's roads. We looked hard for a reason band 1 is weaker (fewer tests, a different mix of defects counted) and ruled both out; the honest remaining explanation is that young-car reliability differences are small enough, and swamped enough by local conditions, that a single-country ranking of the newest cars is less trustworthy than it looks.

One make group is weaker than the rest, and it isn't hidden in a make list, it falls out of the per-model numbers directly: BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi and Volvo, in the two youngest age bands, show close to no agreement between the UK and Norwegian data (their internal rank correlation sits around 0.1 to 0.2 in bands 1 and 2, against 0.75 to 0.85 for nameplate-clean makes like Skoda, Peugeot, Volkswagen and Toyota in the same bands). We traced this as far as we could: it survives fixing real crosswalk bugs on the Norwegian side (these makes' Norwegian model strings are bare engine codes, like "320D" or "X3 XDRIVE20D", that have to be grouped back up to a nameplate), and it is not explained by which kind of defect is counted. It is not a hardcoded flag on these four makes: the confidence badge on each car page is driven by how much that specific model's own numbers agree, and a handful of BMW, Mercedes, Audi and Volvo model/age combinations do agree well and are marked accordingly. But most of them, in the two youngest bands, don't, and are marked "low" confidence for exactly that reason.

The reliability confidence badge

Every ranked car now carries a reliability confidence badge, low, medium or high, next to the existing price confidence badge. It is built from three things: how many tests back the figure, whether one country's data backs it or both, and, where both do, how closely the two agree for that specific model and age band.

233 ranked rows are backed by both countries, 334 by one. Of all ranked rows, 112 are "high" confidence, 404 are "medium", and 51 are "low". Most rows land on medium, and we're reporting that plainly rather than adjusting the thresholds to make the picture look more decisive than the data supports.

The repair cost estimate is a rough index, not a garage quote

We count how often each part of a car fails its MOT test, then weight that by a per-brand multiplier for how expensive that brand's parts and labour tend to be. A failed headlamp bulb and a failed suspension arm currently count the same, a simplification since a suspension repair costs far more. We turn that index into kroner using a flat rate of 3.000 kr per point per year, a judgement call, not a measurement, because no public dataset of Danish repair costs by model exists. At that rate, repairs are a modest slice of most cars' total cost. If the true rate is much higher, the ranking within a bracket could shift, though the overall shape of the site's findings should hold.

How we estimate a used price

Bilbasen and DBA's listing databases are protected under EU database right law, and Denmark doesn't publish a public database of used car prices either. Bulk copying either site's listings is off the table. So we built an estimate instead of leaving prices out entirely, and then checked that estimate against a small number of real Danish asking prices: mostly collected by hand, filled out where needed with a handful of individual, rate-limited searches on Bilbasen and DBA, no different in scale from a buyer checking a few listings by hand, never a bulk pull of either site's database.

  1. Started from a market with almost no car tax. Poland's used car tax is negligible, so asking prices there are a reasonable stand-in for what a car is worth before any country's tax is added. We used a public dataset of Polish used car listings (released into the public domain, no scraping needed) to see how each model's price changes with age.
  2. Converted to a Danish price using Denmark's real tax formula. We transcribed the registration tax formula from the Danish tax authority's published rate tables and applied it. This is where our estimate is weakest: Danish law technically wants a used car's tax scaled down by how much it's depreciated from new, and we don't have a reliable new price for every model to base that on. We approximate around this rather than inventing a new-car price. See "known limits" below.
  3. Checked the result against the Danish market: asking prices we collected by hand and, for models we couldn't otherwise find enough of, through a small number of individual searches on Bilbasen and DBA, across a spread of common models and price levels, and corrected the whole estimate by the gap we found. Cars under 150,000 kr were corrected separately from cars above it, since the gap wasn't quite the same size at both ends.

This matching step has already caught one real mistake. Every BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo model except the plainest names (X1, X3, GLC, V70) was quietly falling back to a whole-brand average price, because Denmark's registry spells these models "1-Serie", "A-Klasse", "XC60" while the Polish listings spell the same cars "Seria 1", "Klasa A", "XC 60": reversed word order for the first two, a missing space for the third. No model-level match, no error either, just a wrong number that looked plausible. Fixed with a table of accepted alternate spellings; every BMW, Mercedes and Volvo model now prices off its own listings.

This calibration is limited. We measured how well the correction fits the same prices we used to build it, which will always look better than how it performs on a car we haven't checked. Treat "calibrated against Danish listings" as true, and "accurate to within some exact percentage" as not yet proven.

Every price on this site also carries a confidence flag, low, medium or high, based on how many comparable foreign listings backed it up, and whether we had to borrow a whole brand's price pattern because one specific model had fewer than 15 listings of its own to build a fair estimate from. That threshold matters: a pooled Skoda price, for example, gets averaged in with Octavia, Superb and Kodiaq, so a cheap city car can end up priced like a mid-size saloon unless it clears the bar on its own. You'll see the confidence flag on any car page where it isn't "high."

Mileage matters too, and we adjust for it

A price estimate is anchored to a "typical" mileage for that car's age, not any specific odometer reading. We measured how much price moves with mileage from Danish listings (about 3.0% for every extra 10,000 km), and use that to adjust a resale value when we compare a car bought at one age to the same car sold years later.

Cars we couldn't price at all

Suzuki and DS models are barely present in the foreign listings data we use, so most of them have nothing solid to build a price estimate from. For a few (Swift, Baleno, Ignis, Celerio) we found Danish asking prices by hand and used the same shape-from-a-similar-car method used for Skoda Citigo (see known limits below), borrowing a same-segment model's depreciation curve and scaling it to that price, marked "low confidence" since it rests on one or two listings rather than a full curve. The rest still show reliability and running-cost data with no price and no ranking, clearly marked. 5 models are still unpriced.

What "most car for the money" means

Every bracket page has two lists. "Cheapest to own" ranks purely on money. "Most car for the money" blends that cost ranking with an engagement score built from power-to-weight, cylinder count and kerb weight, an equal 50/50 split, disclosed here rather than buried in the code. We measured that these two things pull in opposite directions more often than not: cars that are more fun to drive tend to cost more to run. Neither list is "more correct" than the other, they answer different questions.

What we won't do

Known limits, all in one place


Something on this page look wrong, or missing? The full pipeline and every reference file behind these numbers live in this project's repository. Nothing here is generated on request, every figure was computed ahead of time from the sources listed above.